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Parabolic SAR Trading

Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) another great indicator for swing trading or trend recongnition ...




Investopedia explains Parabolic Indicator
This method was developed by J. Wells Wilder. Basically, if the stock is trading below the parabolic SAR (PSAR) you should sell. If the stock price is above the SAR then you should buy (or stay long). Read more...

How to Trade Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands or you messure of volitliy is another indicator I use and most my charts ...



Investopedia explains Bollinger BandBecause standard deviation is a measure of volatility, Bollinger bands adjust themselves to the market conditions. When the markets become more volatile, the bands widen (move further away from the average), and during less volatile periods, the bands contract (move closer to the average). The tightening of the bands is often used by technical traders as an early indication that the volatility is about to increase sharply.

This is one of the most popular technical analysis techniques. The closer the prices move to the upper band, the more overbought the market, and the closer the prices move to the lower band, the more oversold the market. Read more... 

Intraday Bollinger Trading

Trend Trading ADX Indicator Video Tutorial

ADX: The Trend Strength Indicator
Trading in the direction of a strong trend reduces risk and increases profit potential. The average directional index (ADX) is used to determine when price is trending strongly. In many cases, it is the ultimate trend indicator. After all, the trend may be your friend, but it sure helps to know who your friends are.Read more:


ADX Indicator


This a great tool and Indicator to use in conjunction with Others

HOW TO TRADE THE SLOW STOCHASTIC INDICATOR LIKE A PRO

This is a tool I use on all my charts The Slow Stochatics



Part 2


Part 3


Stochastic Oscillator
What Does Stochastic Oscillator Mean?
A technical momentum indicator that compares a security's closing price to its price range over a given time period. The oscillator's sensitivity to market movements can be reduced by adjusting the time period or by taking a moving average of the result. This indicator is calculated with the following formula:

%K = 100[(C - L14)/(H14 - L14)]

C = the most recent closing price
L14 = the low of the 14 previous trading sessions
H14 = the highest price traded during the same 14-day period.

%D = 3-period moving average of %K

Investopedia explains Stochastic Oscillator
The theory behind this indicator is that in an upward-trending market, prices tend to close near their high, and during a downward-trending market, prices tend to close near their low. Transaction signals occur when the %K crosses through a three-period moving average called the "%D". Read more


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Part 5


Part 6

'Solar Impulse' Video: Plane takes off & flies exclusively on sunlight

Impressive, Incredible and a glimpse to where we are headed Clean renewable energy is the future...


Bad Things That Penny Stock Comapny's Can Do To Investors ...


-The Bad -


What is 'Dilution'?

-'Dilution' is the issuance of additional shares to the 'outstanding share count'. While not such a bad sounding definition, the impact of dilution can ruin a shareholder's position in a stock. The additional shares effectively 'dilute' the value of all shares on the market. Think of it like a pizza. The pie represents the market valuation of the company, while the slices represent the individual shares of the company's stock. When the company sells new shares, the pie doesn't get bigger, the slices simply get smaller. The investor is left with smaller slices.. or.. cheaper shares. Dilution Definition

The direct effect of selling new shares can often be far more damaging than the proportional increase in shares warrants. Selling shares on the open market drives down the price; supply is increased, while demand stays the same. Without care a company can send their stock into a diluted spiral that is very damaging to shareholders.

The purpose of dilution is for the company to raise money, plain and simple. In the grand scheme, the purpose for a company to go public in the first place is to provide a means for raising capital. You must find companies that do so in a responsible manner, without hurting shareholders. Always keep this in mind when trading any stock, and you will fall victim to dilution far less often.

What is a 'Reverse Split'?


-A 'Reverse Split' (or R/S, RS) is a method by which a company reduces the number of shares on the market and increases the stock price proportionally. Reverse splits are done at a specific ratio: ie - 10 for 1, or 10:1. This ratio would mean that if a shareholder held 1000 shares at 1 cent, after the reverse split the shareholder would be left with 100 shares at 10 cents each. The value of the position does not change from the reverse split... at least not directly from it.

Companies usually do a reverse split to increase the price of the stock to more attractive levels, or to remain at a minimum price for a particular exchange. While not necessarily a bad thing, a R/S is a popular method that bad penny stock companies use to continue raising capital through dilution. 'Dilution', if done enough, will eventually leave a stock virtually worthless. The price may go as low as .0001 dollars, the minimum that stocks are tradable by common investors. At this point the company can no longer effectively raise capital by selling more shares.

By performing an R/S, the number of shares on the market decrease, and the price increases back to a "dilutable" level. The dilution starts again, and the cycle can continue over and over. Because of this, a black cloud is associated with the R/S. They normally result in a large selloff by remaining shareholders, causing the price to plummet, and the shareholder value to follow suit.

A reverse split is very rarely an opportunity for a safe investment, and certainly not a wise choice for a beginner in penny stocks. To protect yourself from purchasing the stock of a company with a history of abusive reverse splits, check out this iHub board and scan through the list.: Reverse Split Repeat Offenders Listing

What is a "Gagged" Transfer Agent?

-A 'Transfer Agent' is a company's means of managing shareholder records, issuing and canceling stock certificates, and processing investor mailings. Some companies can act as their own transfer agent, but most often, especially with penny stocks, the job is outsourced to companies specializing in the business. Transfer agents are normally the most accurate, and often the only way of finding the current O/S, A/S, and float for a penny stock. Some will require a fax with shareholder details to retrieve the information, others simply a phone call or email. This type of transparency is desirable among investors.

A "Gagged" transfer agent is one which has been instructed by the company they are working for to not release information, such as the share structure. This is usually NOT a good situation. There is no legitimate reason for a company to gag their TA. It is almost always done to hide dilution. Some TA's, however, have a policy against releasing share structure information. The reasoning behind this is to keep the thousands of penny stock traders from bogging down their business with requests for information. Unfortunately this forces the shareholder to contact the company for information. While this isn't as bad as a company specifically gagging their TA, it still isn't an ideal scenario. Whether the company sought out this TA because of this policy, or it was a coincidence, is up for debate.


Without knowing the current number of outstanding shares, an investor has no idea if shares are being sold by the company. Concurrently, without knowing the number of authorized shares, the number of shares that can possibly be sold is not known either. Companies that practice this scam will often issue press releases, or other investor communication containing excuses for having the TA gagged. Unknowing investors will buy these up, and continue holding shares, or even buying more. We do not recommend touching a stock with a gagged TA, unless you are experienced with penny stocks, and it is purely a short term momentum play.

Swing Trading Fibonacci Time Zones Fibonacci retracement

Fibonacci Number

The Fibonacci sequence is named after Leonardo of Pisa, who was known as Fibonacci. Fibonacci's 1202 book Liber Abaci introduced the sequence to Western European mathematics,[2] although the sequence had been described earlier in Indian mathematics.[3][4][5] (By modern convention, the sequence begins with F0 = 0. The Liber Abaci began the sequence with F1 = 1, omitting the initial 0, and the sequence is still written this way by some.)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia




What is , and where do the ratios that are used come from?

Fibonacci retracement is a very popular tool among technical traders and is based on the key numbers identified by mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci in the thirteenth century. However, Fibonacci's sequence of numbers is not as important as the mathematical relationships, expressed as ratios, between the numbers in the series. In technical analysis, Fibonacci retracement is created by taking two extreme points (usually a major peak and trough) on a stock chart and dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%. Once these levels are identified, horizontal lines are drawn and used to identify possible support and resistance levels. Before we can understand why these ratios were chosen, we need to have a better understanding of the Fibonacci number series. (For a more in-depth discussion of this subject, see Fibonacci And The Golden Ratio.)

The Fibonacci sequence of numbers is as follows: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, etc. Each term in this sequence is simply the sum of the two preceding terms and sequence continues infinitely. One of the remarkable characteristics of this numerical sequence is that each number is approximately 1.618 times greater than the preceding number. This common relationship between every number in the series is the foundation of the common ratios used in retracement studies.

The key Fibonacci ratio of 61.8% - also referred to as "the golden ratio" or "the golden mean" - is found by dividing one number in the series by the number that follows it. For example: 8/13 = 0.6153, and 55/89 = 0.6179.

The 38.2% ratio is found by dividing one number in the series by the number that is found two places to the right. For example: 55/144 = 0.3819.

The 23.6% ratio is found by dividing one number in the series by the number that is three places to the right. For example: 8/34 = 0.2352.

For reasons that are unclear, these ratios seem to play an important role in the stock market, just as they do in nature, and can be used to determine critical points that cause an asset's price to reverse. The direction of the prior trend is likely to continue once the price of the asset has retraced to one of the ratios listed above. The following chart illustrates how Fibonacci retracement can be used. Notice how the price changes direction as it approaches the support/resistance levels.

Read more: investopedia

Capital structure video Debt to Equity Explained

Capital structure video

Many people run scared screaming the ever so dirty word of dilution, well truth is if your long a stock sometimes these are necessary measures to help insure both your survival and well being of the Company.




Peak Oil Review 2011

Published Jun 20 2011 by ASPO-USA
by Tom Whipple


1. Oil and the Global Economy
Oil prices fell sharply last week. From nearly $100 a barrel in NY early in the week prices fell below $92 a barrel on Thursday before closing out the week at $93.01. In London Brent crude fell from nearly $120 early in the week to close at $113.21. The close left the London-NY price spread at $20.20 after touching an all-time high of $22.29 on Wednesday. The downturn, which left oil prices at a four-month low, came mainly on concerns about the consequences of the Greek debt crisis and a series of worst-than expected US economic reports.
On Wednesday, the IMF warned that the European debt crisis and the slowing growth of the US economy imperiled the prospects for global economic recovery. Widespread expectations that the Saudis will soon be pumping 10 million b/d and concerns over China’s economic growth also contributed to the fall in prices.
Although the weekly US stocks report showed a 3.4 million barrel drop in US crude inventories, much of the decline was attributed to the temporary closing of the major oil import pipeline from Canada the week before.
For the next few months, oil prices will be determined by the balance between what could become very serious economic problems in the US and EU and the likelihood of continued, albeit slightly slower, economic growth in China and a few other countries. Increasing power shortages, in what could be a very hot summer, are likely to drive the demand for emergency generator fuel to new highs in China, South Asia, and in parts of the Middle East and Africa.
Even higher gasoline and a further economic slowdown raises questions of just how much further the demand for motor fuel will fall. There is solid evidence that in the US and other highly motorized societies continued use of motor vehicles remains a high priority for many at the expense of other expenditures.

2. Iraq
As the time for withdrawal of US forces from Iraq draws near, concern about the political and economic stability of the country continues to rise. Last week four bombs were planted in Iraq’s 2nd largest refinery outside Baghdad. Although the one bomb that did explode caused minimal damage, another one that was defused in time, could have taken out as much as 75 percent of the refinery’s production. In recent months, violent incidents across Iraq have been increasing although they are still way below the levels seen five years ago.
It is starting to be realized that Iraq’s shortfall in power and water supplies will be a limiting factor in determining how fast Iraq’s oil reserves can be developed. Although last year the government was confidently talking about becoming the world’s largest oil producer, the IEA noted that Baghdad will be lucky to get to 6 million b/d 20 years from now.
One interesting phenomenon that is emerging from Iraqi efforts to increase oil production is the emergence of US oil service companies — Halliburton, Baker Hughes, Weatherford International and Schlumberger - as the big winners. A combination of political pressures that favored anybody but the American oil companies and razor-thin opportunities for profits ($1.15 barrel) left US corporations with few prime contracts for oil. As the actual work starts, however, it is US oil service companies with the requisite technical expertise and equipment already in place that are winning the bulk of the actual drilling contracts. Not only are the US companies earning large profits up front, they are foregoing the risk that Iraq may not remain stable enough to fulfill its lofty production goals.

3. The IEA’s reports
Last week saw the publication of the IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report (OMR) and its Medium Term Oil and Gas Markets outlook which projects Agency’s assessment of global supply and demand for the next five years. In recent weeks the IEA has been sounding nearly non-stop warnings that ever since the Libyan and Yemen uprisings took some 1.5 million b/d off the oil markets there was a real danger of higher oil prices and shortages this summer. The current publications are no exception. The Agency is still expecting global oil demand to increase this year by 1.3 million b/d to 89.3 million b/d with OECD demand down a bit due to high prices and the economic slowdown, and Chinese and Indian demand up a bit.
The IEA says that global oil supply for May rose by 270,000 b/d from 87.41 billion b/d in April with 210,000 b/d coming from OPEC. The cartel is reported as supplying an average of 29.18 million b/d in May which is close to the Platts survey which put OPEC production for the month at 29.04 million b/d. The IEA, however, points out that the OPEC’s May production was still 1.25 million b/d below the pre-Libyan uprising level. Increases from Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Kuwait and Iraq offset lower UAE and Angolan production.
At a press conference in St. Petersburg announcing the release of the Medium-Term Oil and Gas Markets 2011 (MTOGM), IEA Executive Director Tanaka warned again of the looming shortage of sweet crude which is unlikely to be replaced by increased Saudi production. At the press conference, Tanaka noted that while the Saudis have said they will make up for the lost Libyan production, so far they have failed to say how fast and how much. While a Saudi newspaper has claimed that the Saudis will soon be producing at 10 million b/d, a recent high, the paper failed to attribute the number to any Saudi official.
David Fyfe, IEA’s chief of Oil Industry and Markets told the same press conference that they now see the oil markets as being much tighter in the next two years than previously believed.
The MTOGM 2011 sees oil supplies growing at 1.1 million b/d annually through 2016 as higher prices stimulate new supplies from Iraq, UAE, Angola, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Columbia. The Agency is aware that much higher prices will damage economies so it has generated a base case in which production reaches 95.3 million b/d in 2016 and a lower growth variant which results in production only reaching 92.9 million b/d in that year. Ninety-five percent of the increased demand over the next five years will come from China, Asia, and the Middle East.

4. China
Two weeks ago Beijing’s chief concern was the drought that had engulfed much of southern and Central China. Now after days of torrential rains, some 500,000 have been forced from their homes by flooding. The government has warned that while the rains have brought some relief from the drought, they have also caused much damage and that crop shortages and dislocations caused by the drought and flood will be severe. Some analysts believe that China’s crop shortage could affect prices around the world.
China reported that inflation accelerated in May with the consumer price index hitting 5.5 percent as compared with last year. Much of the increase was due to the drought-stressed agricultural sector. The report spurred China’s Central Bank to raise reserve requirements for the sixth time this year. Although the inflation data was a little above expectations and industrial production was down a bit, most analysts see nothing that would endanger China’s GDP growth that is still in the vicinity of 10 percent a year. Oil consumption was flat in May, but even Beijing is warning of increased demand when the hot summer months arrive.
An interesting sidelight to the week was failure of Moscow and Beijing to reach agreement on how much China will pay Russia for new supplies of natural gas. The negotiations reached the level where President Hu and Prime Minister Putin were sitting across the table. The deal is to be one of the largest ever consummated with two new gas pipelines costing $100 billion bringing natural gas from Siberia into Chinese cities. The deal could amount to 2 percent of Russia’s GDP in future years.
Quote of the week
“The oil market for the rest of this year looks potentially short of sweet crude, should the Libyan crisis continue to keep those supplies restrained.”

Peak Oil strikes 2012 - 2015



– IEA
The Briefs (clips from recent Peak Oil News dailies are indicated by date and item #)
• The British government was warned by its own civil servants two years ago that there could be “significant negative economic consequences” to the UK posed by near-term “Peak Oil” energy shortages. Ministers were told it was impossible to know exactly when production might fail to meet supply but when it did there could be global consequences, including “civil unrest”. The government consistently played down the threat with the contemporaneous Wicks review into energy security effectively dismissing Peak Oil as alarmist and irrelevant. (6/16, #6)
• The newly appointed director of the Libyan rebel National Oil Company said he believed it would take 10 months to a year after hostilities end for Libya to restore its oil production to the pre-crisis level of 1.6 million b/d. (6/13, #8)
• Iraq’s state owned South Oil Company and partners Shell and Malaysia’s Petronas have awarded Dubai based Dodsal Group a $106 million contract to build a pipeline connecting the supergiant Majnoon oil field with a pumping station near the southern export terminals in Basra. (6/18, #4)
• US oil supplies rose to the highest level in 31 years during May as refineries processed less crude amid a decline in gasoline demand, according to the American Petroleum Institute. Demand for gasoline declined 0.7% from May 2010 to 9.16 million b/d, a two-year low. (6/18, #9)
• The number of drilling rigs seeking natural gas in the US fell for a second consecutive week. There were 870 rigs drilling for natural gas this week, down by nine from the previous week. (6/18, #14)
• A bipartisan majority of the US Senate voted Thursday to end more than three decades of federal subsidies for ethanol as Democrats and Republicans negotiate a sweeping deficit reduction deal. The tax breaks, which now cost about $6 billion a year, had long been considered untouchable because of the power of farm state voters and lawmakers. (6/17, #14)
• A US House Energy and Commerce subcommittee passed a bill aimed at expediting a final Department of State decision on a cross-border permit for the proposed Keystone XL pipeline from Canada. (6/17, #15)
• Shell is hoping to have key federal air quality permits for its Arctic offshore drilling in the first half of July. (6/17, #16)
• Sales of full-size pickups, an economic indicator and a profit driver for Detroit, have stalled this spring. (6/16, #19)
• Three former US energy secretaries and other industry leaders urged Congress to rethink funding cuts to the US EIA, arguing the smaller budget could exacerbate market uncertainty and price swings. (6/15, #16)
• The US Department of Defense has drafted its first plan to change how it uses energy on the battlefield. The strategy, which will be fleshed out this summer with a more detailed implementation plan, constitutes the Pentagon’s promise to develop more energy-efficient weapons, embrace non-oil energy sources and demand more energy-conscious behavior from the troops. (6/15, #17, #18)
• The worst Texas drought since record-keeping began 116 years ago may crimp an oil and natural gas drilling boom as government officials ration water supplies crucial to energy exploration. In the hardest hit areas, water management districts are warning residents and businesses to curtail usage from rivers, lakes and aquifers. (6/14, #27)
• India’s Oil & Natural Gas Corp plans to spend as much as $39 billion in the five years starting April 2012, as it seeks to lift output to meet the demand for energy in Asia’s third largest economy. (6/18, #7)
• In a bid to feed India’s burgeoning power demand, companies across the country are joining with their foreign counterparts in Indonesia and Australia. The shortage is likely to more than double over the next five years, say traders and analysts and the current 125 million tons of coal production is just not enough to feed India’s power and heavy industries. (6/16, #15)
• India surpassed France, the UK and Italy to become the sixth largest automotive market in the world in 2010, and it is expected to become one of the three largest automotive markets in the world by 2020, according to a report by J.D. Power and Associates. (6/14, #18)
• Prices of the rare earths used in lasers and plasma televisions more than doubled in the past two weeks as China[/b tightens control of mining, production and exports, according to market researcher Industrial Minerals. (6/17, #23)
• China said Tuesday it would not resort to force in the South China Sea dispute after its neighbors expressed concern about its more assertive maritime posture. (6/15, #13)
• China’s electric power consumption in May rose 10.8 percent year on year to reach 386.5 kWh, according to data released Tuesday by the National Energy Administration. The increase in power consumption slowed a bit from the 11.2 percent growth in April. (6/14, #19)
• China has declared all its active nuclear reactors safe after inspections triggered by Japan’s nuclear crisis and is proceeding with plans to build new ones. The decision rekindles concerns about how it deals with radioactive spent fuel that proved a major hazard in Japan after the March 11 earthquake. (6/16, #14)
• A rise in radiation halted the cleanup of radioactive water at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power station on Saturday hours after it got under way, a fresh setback to efforts to restore control over the quake stricken plant. (6/18, #8)
• Concern has arisen that South Korea’s electricity supply might struggle to match demand this summer. The fear comes from an early arrival of warm temperatures and meteorologists’ predictions of a warmer-than-usual summer. The government already has taken preemptive measures to prevent shortages of electricity from crippling the economy. (6/16, #17)
• Malaysian imports of crude oil rose 57% year-on-year in April to 781,000 mt (190,000 b/d), but the country still managed to return to net exporter status after taking in more oil and products than it shipped overseas the previous month. (6/13, #16)
• One of the driest spring seasons on record in northern Europe has dried out soils and sharply reduced river levels to the point that governments are starting to fear crop losses and France is bracing for blackouts as its river-cooled nuclear power plants may be forced to shut down. (6/18, #17)
• The Nabucco energy pipeline, widely seen in Brussels as key to reduce Europe’s dependency on Russian gas supplies, “is not a solid project,” the head of Italian energy company ENI, Paolo Scaroni, said on Wednesday. (6/16. #23)
• Bulgaria’s government says it has granted Chevron a permit to explore for shale gas in northeastern Bulgaria over the next five years. The government said in a statement Wednesday that Chevron would undertake a five-year project worth $72 million and would spend $5.8 million on environment protection. (6/16, #25)
• A year and three days after the government suspended power-rationing measures, following the 2010 energy crisis, Venezuelan authorities announced the return of power saving measures. Further, a reward and punishment plan for heavy household power consumers, which was previously implemented only in Caracas, will be extended to virtually all the country. (6/16, #11)
• Residents in the capital of Yemen have been living with energy shortages. The situation began at the start of 2011 when energy supplies were severely affected by the riots which have frequently damaged the major local power-generating facilities. (6/16, #10)
• A natural gas pipeline from Egypt to Israel has reopened after more than a month’s shutdown due to sabotage. The pipeline, which also carries Egyptian gas to Syria, Jordan and Lebanon, has been sabotaged twice since February, when former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak resigned. (6/13, #7)
• Petrol stations across Dubai are rationing fuel or turning drivers away altogether as a country-wide fuel shortage stretches into its second week. State-owned retailer ENOC has blamed disruption at more than 80 stations across emirates including Sharjah, Ajman and Ras Al Khaimah on maintenance problems. (6/15, #8)
• Nigeria’s crude oil export has suffered a major setback as Shell Petroleum Development Company declared force majeure on about 300,000 b/d of Bonny Light crude for June and July shipment. Before the latest incident, Nigeria’s crude oil export was 2.4 million barrels daily. (6/14, #13, #14) (6/15, #11)
• Some 1 billion 40 kWh Li-based electric vehicle batteries could be built with the currently estimated reserve of lithium, according to a recent study by researchers from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of California, Berkeley. (6/18, #20)
• Worldwide exploration and production spending for oil in 2011 is expected to rise 16 percent to $529 billion, compared with $458 billion in 2010, Barclays Capital reported in its global E&P capital spending update. (6/14, #6)

NEWS June 23, 211 US and others plan biggest release of reserve oil

The U.S. stocks, called the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, hold 727 million barrels. The reserve has never been fuller. It held 707 million barrels before the U.S. last tapped the reserve in 2008 in response to supply disruptions caused by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike.



"US and others plan biggest release of reserve oil." The US is now scraping the bottom of the (oil) barrel. #peakoil

Volume : Price Trends


Volume to Price Trends
Price up, Volume up = Bullish (except during a market top)
Price down, volume up = Bearish (except at a market bottom)
Price up, volume down = Bearish
Price down, volume down = Bullish (trend losing momentum)

Volume up sharply, indicates a change in direction
Volume down sharply indicates indecision
Volume up gradually indicates the trend will continue
Volume down gradually indicates a drop in market momentum and the possibility of a reversal


Volume : Price Trends
http://cdn3.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachments/34/11927d1246813018-price-volume-relationship-b2b.jpg

WARREN BUFFET SAID ...

The Price Volume Trend indicator is usually interpreted as follows:

•Increasing price accompanied by an increasing Price Volume Trend value, confirms the price trend upward.
•Decreasing price accompanied by a decreasing Price Volume Trend value, confirms the price trend downward.
•Increasing price accompanied by a decreasing or neutral Price Volume Trend value is a divergence and is indicating that the price movement upward is weak and lacking conviction.
•Decreasing price accompanied by a increasing or neutral Price Volume Trend value is a divergence and is indicating that the price movement downward is weak and lacking conviction.

WARREN BUFFET SAID ...

~ Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good results.

~ Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.

~ Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.

~ The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities — that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future — will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.





~Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well.

~Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.